Most Pakistanis Still See Rupee Falling Below 285/$ Despite Recent Rally

The Pakistani rupee is expected to remain under pressure in the coming months, with a majority of market participants forecasting the dollar to stay above Rs. 285, according to a survey conducted by Topline Securities.

It should be mentioned here that the PKR has appreciated for 145 consecutive days (~5 months) against the greenback. The interbank rate sits at Rs. 278/$.

Around 59% of respondents expect the PKR/USD parity to remain above 285, while 31% see the exchange rate moving in the 280–285 range. Only 10% expect the rupee to trade between 275 and 280.

The survey also points to persistent inflationary pressures. About 51% of participants expect inflation to remain above 9% over the next 12 months, while 23% anticipate it to stay within the 7%–9% range. A smaller portion expects inflation to ease further.

On monetary policy, sentiment suggests a tighter long-term stance. For December 2026, 59% of respondents expect the policy rate to remain above the current level of 10.5%. Meanwhile, 29% expect no change at 10.5%, and 6% foresee a reduction to 10% or lower.

Oil price expectations also reflect ongoing uncertainty, with 59% of market participants expecting crude to stay above $80 per barrel amid global geopolitical tensions. The remaining 41.2% believe prices will remain below that level.

Overall, the survey highlights expectations of sustained macroeconomic pressure, with respondents pointing to continued weakness in the rupee, sticky inflation, and elevated global oil prices shaping the outlook.