Can Middle East Pipelines Replace the Strait of Hormuz Oil Route?

As the United States–Israel war on Iran enters its fourth week, global energy markets are facing mounting pressure due to severe disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil and gas supplies.

In normal conditions, nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas, about 20 million barrels per day, passes through the narrow waterway connecting Gulf producers to global markets.

However, traffic through the strait has dropped sharply after Iranian officials warned vessels linked to the United States or Israel against using the route.

Following military strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel in early March, a senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the strait was effectively closed.

Although Iran later clarified that the passage is not fully shut, ships now require Tehran’s approval to transit. As a result, shipping activity has fallen by more than 95 percent, leaving around 2,000 vessels stranded on both sides of the waterway.

Some tankers, particularly from India, Pakistan, and China, have reportedly been allowed through after securing permission.

With maritime routes disrupted, Middle Eastern countries are turning to pipeline networks to maintain exports. Three major pipelines are being considered as alternatives.

The East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, is operated by Saudi Aramco. The 1,200-kilometre pipeline connects the Abqaiq oil processing center to the Red Sea port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia.

The pipeline has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day, but about 5 million barrels per day are available for exports. Since the conflict began, Saudi Arabia has significantly increased oil flow through the route.

However, the pipeline still depends on shipping through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint that could also face disruption from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement.

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), also known as the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, runs 380 kilometers from oil fields in Abu Dhabi to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman in the United Arab Emirates.

Operational since 2012, the pipeline can transport about 1.5 million barrels per day. Recent data suggests exports from Fujairah have increased as Gulf producers look for alternatives to Hormuz.

The Iraq–Turkey pipeline, also known as the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline, connects northern Iraq to the Mediterranean coast of Turkiye.

It has a capacity of around 1.6 million barrels per day, though current flows are estimated at only about 200,000 barrels per day.

Despite their importance, experts say the pipelines cannot fully compensate for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Combined, the three routes can handle around 9 million barrels per day, less than half of the 20 million barrels per day normally transported through the strait.

Moreover, the pipelines themselves remain vulnerable to missile or drone strikes amid the ongoing conflict, with energy infrastructure across the Gulf already facing attacks.

Other options, such as transporting oil by trucks, are considered impractical due to high costs and logistical challenges.

A single truck typically carries 100 to 700 barrels, meaning thousands of vehicles would be required to move significant volumes.

As the conflict continues, analysts warn that prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could have major implications for global energy markets and fuel prices worldwide.