Petrol Price |Likely to Rise Again This Week|

The government is likely to increase petrol prices by Rs. 4.75 per litre in the upcoming fuel price review, while high-speed diesel is likely to remain almost unchanged, provided the government does not introduce any additional petroleum levy.

According to the latest internal estimates of the oil industry, petrol is set to become more expensive in the next pricing cycle, whereas high-speed diesel may see only a marginal change if there are no foreign exchange adjustments before the official announcement.

For petrol, the ex-refinery price is projected to rise from Rs. 270.03 per litre to Rs. 274.77 per litre, reflecting an increase of around Rs. 4.75 per litre. The main reason behind the expected jump is the rise in the international Free on Board price, which increased from $139.03 per barrel to $143.01 per barrel during the review period.

Although a slight decline in premiums and incidental costs offered some relief, it was not enough to offset the overall increase. The removal of a previous Pakistan State Oil adjustment of Rs. 1.41 per litre also added to the net increase in petrol prices.

In comparison, high-speed diesel is expected to post only a minor increase of Rs. 0.20 per litre, moving from Rs. 334.74 per litre to Rs. 334.93 per litre. While the international Free on Board price for diesel rose sharply from $160.41 per barrel to $172.99 per barrel, the increase was largely neutralised by a major reduction in customs duty and incidental costs.

Industry calculations show that customs duty alone declined by more than Rs. 20 per litre, which helped keep diesel prices broadly stable despite rising international rates.

The exchange rate remained largely steady during the review period at around Rs. 278.9 per US dollar, limiting its impact on the final pricing.

Industry officials said petrol users are likely to face the direct impact of higher global gasoline prices, while diesel consumers may benefit from policy measures that have softened the impact of international market fluctuations.

They added that final consumer prices will depend on the government’s decision on taxes, levies, and any last-minute exchange rate adjustments before the official notification is issued.