Shrinking snow forebodes water scarcity in Indus basin
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ISLAMABAD: The Indus River Basin, the lifeline of Pakistan, is facing a looming threat of water scarcity, as snow cover across the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region has fallen to 27.8 per cent below the long-term average, thus posing an immediate and escalating threat to water security for nearly two billion people who depend on the 12 major basins originating in the region.
The decline in snow cover has broken last year’s record low and marks the fourth consecutive year of below-normal snow persistence, according to the Snow Update Report 2026 released by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). Snow persistence has been below normal in 10 of the 12 major river basins in the HKH region, including the Indus Basin.
The report reveals that the Indus Basin continues to experience a reduction in snow persistence by 18pc. This steady decline in seasonal snow, combined with below-normal spring precipitation, may lead to reduced runoff, increased groundwater extraction, and heightened risks of drought across the region.
From a high of 19.5pc in 2020, the Indus Basin saw a sharp drop to 24.5pc below normal in 2024 — the lowest level recorded in the past 24 years. The deficit persists in 2026, recorded at 18.1pc below normal. This decline is likely to exacerbate early summer water scarcity in a basin where nearly half of runoff comes from meltwater. It threatens almost 300 million people and underscores the need for stronger water management strategies, the report warns.
The persistent decline signals a systemic collapse of seasonal snow reserves across the world’s highest mountain range, posing an escalating threat to water security for nearly two billion people dependent on HKH river basins. Ten of these basins now have below-normal snow persistence, with the Mekong, Tarim, and Tibetan Plateau recording their lowest levels in 24 years of monitoring.
These conditions are alarming for downstream water availability in early summer.
The ICIMOD has recommended that authorities prepare adaptive water management strategies and strengthen drought preparedness. Early warning systems, optimised water allocation, and coordinated efforts among agencies will be critical in mitigating the impact of potential shortages. The report also calls for effective drought response mechanisms to ensure timely relief and sustained water supply in snow-dependent regions of South Asia.
The HKH region relies heavily on the cryosphere, frozen water on the Earth’s surface, as a key source of freshwater for over two billion people. On average, snowmelt contributes around 23 pc of total river runoff in the region, with its share increasing from east to west.
Seasonal snowmelt is crucial for water availability. Snowmelt contributes significantly to runoff in the Amu Darya (74.5pc), Helmand (77.5pc), Indus (39.7pc), and Tarim (23.9pc).
“What we are seeing is a persistent trend where the seasonal snow reservoir is shrinking year after year,” said Sher Muhammad, author of the HKH Snow Update 2026. “The 2026 data confirm a breaking point: 10 out of 12 basins are below normal, and several have reached their lowest recorded levels in two decades.”
Farmers in the Indus, Helmand, and Amu Darya basins are likely to face irrigation shortfalls during early growing seasons. Hydropower operators in the Mekong, Yangtze, which is home to the Three Gorges Dam, and Brahmaputra should anticipate below-normal generation in early summer.
Compounding the crisis, consecutive low-snow years have hindered groundwater and soil moisture replenishment, increasing vulnerability to future droughts. “Every dry spell will hit harder,” the report warns. “Regional cooperation on these interconnected issues has now become urgent. We need to shift from emergency response to proactive, science-based governance.”
Only two basins, the Ganges and Irrawaddy, recorded above-normal snow persistence, while severe deficits persist in the Mekong, the Tibetan Plateau, and the Salween.
