Another Weekend, Another Hike? Petrol Prices Set for Sharp Jump

Fuel prices in Pakistan are heading higher once more as global crude oil rates continue to surge. After a steep Rs.55 increase earlier this month, another jump in petrol and diesel prices is now expected over the weekend.

On March 6, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik confirmed the previous hike, linking it to the Middle East crisis that sharply pushed up international crude oil prices. At that time, global rates were moving at an unusual pace, leaving little room for local relief.

The last revision raised petrol to Rs. 321.17 per litre and diesel to Rs. 335.86 per litre. Those prices were based on crude oil averaging between $77-$83 per barrel.

However, the global market has not cooled down. Since that revision, crude oil has climbed further and now averages around $95-$97 per barrel. This sharp rise is putting fresh pressure on domestic fuel prices.

In a major policy shift, the minister also introduced a weekly price adjustment system. Previously, prices were revised every 15 days. The government removed the old system because international oil markets are moving too fast.

According to Ali Pervaiz Malik, weekly revisions will pass price changes to consumers more quickly. As a result, fuel rates could now fluctuate every weekend depending on global trends.

Another revision is due this weekend, possibly on Saturday night or Sunday. Given the current crude oil range, analysts see almost no chance of a price cut.

In fact, avoiding an increase would require heavy subsidies. That option remains unlikely due to IMF conditions and fiscal pressure on the government.

Market estimates suggest three possible outcomes based on current averages. In a conservative case, prices may rise by Rs. 15 to Rs. 20 per liter. The most likely scenario points to an increase of Rs. 20 to Rs. 30 per liter. In a more aggressive case, prices could jump by Rs. 30 to Rs. 35 per liter.

These projections factor in levies, taxes, and IFEM adjustments. Still, they remain estimates tied to current crude oil averages. The final prices will be announced by OGRA or the Petroleum Ministry this weekend.

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