Will Verstappen, Alonso trigger F1 'silly season' chaos?

Max Verstappen has yet to commit to staying with Red Bull next season amid links to Mercedes and McLaren; Aston Martin's Fernando Alonso could retire from F1; watch all the remaining 2026 Formula 1 races live on Sky Sports F1, starting with the Dutch GP from August 21-23

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With Formula 1's summer break upon us, the sport's 'silly season' of speculation around - and possible movement in - the driver market is officially under way.

While drivers have switched teams throughout the sport's history, 'silly season' has really taken off in F1's Drive to Survive era, with the documentation of Daniel Ricciardo's move from Red Bull to Renault ahead of the 2019 season laying out a blueprint for how to dramatise the summer break.

Since then, we have actually seen some of the biggest deals done before the break, most notably when Lewis Hamilton confirmed in February 2024 that he would be joining Ferrari the following year.

Max Verstappen's future was a major talking point during the first half of last season, but the 28-year-old confirmed at the final race before the 2025 break that he would stay with Red Bull for at least one more year.

The fact that Verstappen only committed for one more year meant that it didn't take long for him to resume his role as the protagonist in F1's driver market soap opera, with the four-time world champion having spent most of his media appearances over the last couple of months fielding questions on his future.

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The other driver who will dictate just how spicy silly season gets is Fernando Alonso, with the two-time world champion needing to decide whether, at the age of 45, he wants to commit to another year with Aston Martin.

With each of the former champions' fates appearing to be in their own hands, several other F1 drivers - along with their team principals - are anxiously awaiting decisions that could trigger a flurry of movement.

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Verstappen is contracted to Red Bull until 2028 but an exit clause in his deal, allowing him to leave if he's outside the top two in the Drivers' Championship going into the summer break, has officially been triggered.

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff spent much of 2024 and 2025 attempting to persuade Verstappen to join his team from Red Bull, but the hugely impressive form of championship leader Kimi Antonelli appeared to have cooled the Austrian's interest in altering his driver line-up.

Even amid George Russell's recent struggles in the other Mercedes, it would be a major gamble for Wolff to risk unsettling the 19-year-old Antonelli by bringing Verstappen in to drive alongside him.

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However, photos that have surfaced of Wolff, Verstappen and their families holidaying together during the first week of the summer break have naturally led many to question whether Wolff's claims that he doesn't want to change his line-up in 2027 can be trusted.

McLaren emerged as a possible destination for Verstappen when it was revealed that the reigning constructors' champions had held talks with the Dutchman's representatives in June.

Considering the Red Bull colleague Verstappen works most closely with, his race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase, had already committed to joining McLaren, the Woking squad suddenly seemed like a realistic option.

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However, McLaren's underwhelming form raised questions over why Verstappen would move to a team with a car that was performing little better than his own Red Bull.

But those questions were emphatically answered in the final race before the summer break when Lando Norris romped to victory as the significant upgrade package McLaren brought to Hungary worked beautifully.

Verstappen is understood to have until some point in October to notify Red Bull over whether he is continuing, but there is technically nothing stopping him from making an earlier decision.

Max Verstappen speaking at the last race in Hungary:“Feeling good, but I am feeling good. From my side, when I'm saying that there's nothing to say, it's because there's nothing going on.“For me, I'm just focused on trying to get the most out of the car and what I was explaining before, that's already complicated enough to deal with. That's what I'm just doing.“This team is like a second family to me. I'm just trying to understand our car a bit better, and of course get back to winning ways."

This is remarkably a question we are still asking in 2026, with Alonso having turned 45 years old in late July.

Aston Martin's dreadful first half of the year has made it difficult to gauge how much the Spaniard has left in the tank, but the fact he is still largely dominating his team-mate Lance Stroll in qualifying is a positive indicator.

Aston Martin finally brought their first major chassis upgrade of the season to Hungary, and there were positive results as Alonso got the team through to Q2 for the first time in 2026.

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While there is good reason to believe that team boss, legendary designer Adrian Newey, will get the chassis right sooner rather than later, major doubts remain over how soon Aston Martin's engine supplier Honda can make their power unit competitive.

Honda are bringing a significant upgrade to the Dutch Grand Prix, the first race after the summer break, the success of which will surely play a major role in determining whether Alonso thinks it's worth putting himself through the rigours of one more F1 campaign.

It seems unlikely that Alonso would make a decision before then, but if Verstappen were to set the market in motion by leaving Red Bull, Aston Martin may be rushed into action themselves in an attempt to be in the best possible position to replace the Spaniard if they need to.

Aston Martin team principal Adrian Newey speaking at the last race in Hungary:"Fernando is an amazing driver. He brings huge amounts to the team, both in his feedback and his ability."So, for us, of course it’s important. I’m pretty confident that Fernando is enjoying his time with us and that we will continue with our relationship."

In the cases of both Mercedes and McLaren, it is quite clear which of their drivers would make way should Verstappen be signed.

Russell admitted last summer that his contract talks were being held up by Wolff's attempts to sign Verstappen. While both the Brit and his team boss have said he will be driving a Mercedes next season, doubt will remain while Verstappen's future remains unsettled.

Meanwhile, it seems clear that Norris' status as reigning world champion, along with the fact he is outperforming his team-mate Oscar Piastri this season, makes the Australian the more expendable of the two.

The most obvious option for Russell or Piastri if either was replaced by Verstappen would be to do a straight swap and take up what is still a premium F1 seat at Red Bull.

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However, it's not certain that either would be Red Bull's first choice. The most obvious options from outside the Red Bull driver pipeline would be Carlos Sainz or Oliver Bearman, both of whom would surely also be keen on an opportunity at Aston Martin should Alonso retire.

Sainz appears to be becoming increasingly frustrated during an underwhelming second campaign with Williams, while Ferrari-attached Bearman would like to drive a more competitive car than the Haas he has spent his first two seasons.

From within the Red Bull setup, British rookie Arvid Lindblad has impressed for Racing Bulls, while Bulgarian F2 driver Nikola Tsolov is considered an extremely hot prospect, but pairing either with Isack Hadjar would create a hugely inexperienced line-up.

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The possibility of moving to a faster car for the likes of Sainz and Bearman would shrink significantly if Verstappen and Alonso remain in their current seats next season.

The next best options, judging by the current standings, would come at the two-team midfield of Racing Bulls and Alpine.

While Pierre Gasly continues to impress for Alpine, the Enstone squad could look to take advantage of a lack of opportunities elsewhere to upgrade on Franco Colapinto.

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It seems unlikely that Racing Bulls would look outside of the Red Bull academy if they were to decide to move on from Liam Lawson, but offering Bearman a pathway to their senior team could potentially appeal to the 21-year-old Brit.

The other driver who might be at risk of ending up without a 2027 drive is Bearman's Haas team-mate Esteban Ocon, with there having been murmurs around the paddock for a while that his time in that seat is running out.

A driver following Bearman through the ranks of the Ferrari academy, Brazilian Rafael Camara, has been touted as a possible replacement for Ocon given Haas' close working relationship with the Italian team.

The Formula 1 season resumes after the summer break with a Sprint weekend at the Dutch Grand Prix from August 21-23, with every session live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime

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