Toyota Forecasts 20% Profit Drop as US-Iran War Drives Up Costs

Toyota issued a significant warning to the global market today. The world’s top-selling automaker forecast a massive 20% decline in annual profit for the current financial year. The ongoing Middle East conflict is heavily weighing on the company’s earnings. Consequently, rising costs are overshadowing a massive surge in demand for its hybrid vehicles.

The company expects its operating income to drop to 3.0 trillion yen ($19 billion) in the year ending March 2027. Previously, Toyota reported a result of 3.77 trillion yen in the year that just ended. This new 3 trillion yen forecast falls well below the 4.59 trillion yen median estimated by a poll of 23 analysts. Furthermore, the automaker just reported a nearly 50% drop in quarterly earnings. Operating profit for the quarter ending March 31 plummeted to 569.4 billion yen. This marks the smallest quarterly profit for the company in more than three years. Following this report, Toyota shares closed down around 2.2%, hitting their lowest close since mid-October.

The US-Iran war will cost Toyota approximately 670 billion yen ($4.3 billion) this financial year. Takanori Azuma, a Toyota accounting group officer, stated that higher material costs will drive the bulk of this massive hit. The conflict directly impacts fuel costs, transportation expenses, and the cost of paint used at vehicle assembly plants. Moreover, delivery delays and lower sales volumes make up the remainder of the financial blow.

Toyota already saw its Middle East sales fall sharply in March after the conflict disrupted regional shipments. Unlike many other global companies, Toyota carries an additional burden. The Japanese manufacturer pledged to absorb the cost increases faced by its group suppliers.

Energy prices continue to rise. Consequently, this drives customers toward fuel-efficient cars. Toyota expects to sell more than 5 million hybrid vehicles for the first time this year. However, this record-breaking demand is not enough to offset the underlying cost pressures.

These financial results are the first under new CEO Kenta Kon. The former finance chief and former secretary to Chairman Akio Toyoda has a reputation for strict cost control. Kon emphasized that Toyota will continue to identify and eliminate waste “one by one.” He highlighted the company’s ability to still deliver around $24 billion in profit despite these considerable headwinds.

Toyota faces other severe industry challenges alongside the Iran war. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs cost the automaker 1.4 trillion yen in the financial year that just ended. Kon must now steer the company through the ongoing impact of these tariffs.

Additionally, the rise of Chinese automakers places heavy competitive pressure on the industry. Other manufacturers feel this same pain. Earlier this week, Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume noted that tariffs represent a 5 billion euro ($5.9 billion) annual burden on the German automaker’s operating profit. Ultimately, the recent surge in energy prices heaps further pain on an auto industry already grappling with massive geopolitical and economic hurdles.

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