Bitcoin Rally Continues But Options Market Sees Only 25% Chance of $84K in May

Bitcoin’s recent rally has extended above the $78,000 level, supported by strong institutional demand and improving risk sentiment in global markets. However, derivatives data suggests traders remain cautious about further upside in the near term.

Data from Deribit indicates that Bitcoin options markets are pricing in only a 25% probability that Bitcoin will reach $84,000 by the end of May.

Call options with a strike price of $84,000 and expiry on May 29 are trading at relatively low premiums, reflecting limited confidence in a strong breakout. At the same time, put options have consistently traded at a premium, signaling higher demand for downside protection among traders.

The 30-day delta skew a key sentiment indicator has remained above neutral levels, suggesting market participants are wary of potential price declines despite recent gains.

Bitcoin’s monthly futures basis rate, which typically ranges between 4% and 8% in bullish conditions, has shown weakness over the past month. This points to reduced demand for leveraged long positions and a lack of conviction among derivatives traders.

This cautious stance persists even though Bitcoin has gained around 15% over the past 30 days, while still remaining down roughly 12% year-to-date in 2026.

In contrast to derivatives markets, institutional activity continues to support Bitcoin’s price.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the United States have recorded significant inflows, with approximately $1.3 billion in March and $2 billion in April. Total net assets in these funds have now surpassed $100 billion, highlighting sustained investor interest.

Additionally, major companies have expanded their Bitcoin holdings. MicroStrategy alone added over 56,000 BTC in the past month, while Japan-based Metaplanet and Strive Asset Management also increased their reserves.

These corporate purchases collectively absorb a significant portion of newly mined Bitcoin, effectively reducing selling pressure in the market.

While derivatives markets remain skeptical about Bitcoin reaching $84,000 in May, strong institutional inflows and corporate accumulation continue to provide a solid foundation for the ongoing rally.

As long as this demand persists, analysts suggest Bitcoin could maintain its upward momentum, even if short-term expectations remain tempered.

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