El Niño conditions likely to develop during 2026 monsoon season in South Asia, PMD says

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It brings changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.

The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.

The climate outlook for the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June to September) was finalised during the 34th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (Sascof-34) held in Malé, Maldives on Tuesday.

According to the spokesperson of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Anjum Nazir Zaighum, and a statement issued by the PMD, below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2026 southwest monsoon season over most parts of South Asia, particularly across the central parts of the region.

“However, some areas over the northwestern, northeastern and parts of the southern region are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall,” the statement noted.

It highlighted that minimum and maximum temperatures during the upcoming season are expected to be above normal across most of South Asia.

The forum deliberated on various observed and emerging climatic features that influence the performance of the southwest monsoon such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), winter and spring Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover and land surface temperature anomalies.

Currently, Enso-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are transitioning toward El Niño conditions, the Sascof-34 statement added.

“Based on the global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus among experts that the El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season,” it added.

It also stated that neutral IOD conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean, and that “climate models indicate that a positive IOD phase is likely to emerge later in the monsoon season”.

The statement further noted that global climate prediction models around the spring season “generally have noticeable uncertainty” in their predictability and that the seasonal climate patterns may also be affected by other regional and global factors, as well as the intra-seasonal features of the region.

Experts from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of nine South Asian countries attended the forum session, along with representatives from several global and regional climate organisations. These included the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), WMO Regional Climate Centre Pune, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), WMO Lead Centre of Seasonal Prediction (WMOLC), Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, among others.

He noted that El Niño suppresses the summer monsoon in the subcontinent.

“If super El Niño forms, then 2027 might be the warmest year in records,” Zaighum added.