Adverse Weather May Cut Pakistan’s Wheat Production

Pakistan’s wheat production is expected to decline by around 1.2 million tonnes, or 3.8 percent, to 28.1 million tonnes during the 2025-26 Rabi season due to adverse weather conditions.

The revised estimate is lower than the earlier projection of 29.31 million tonnes and also below last year’s output of 28.42 million tonnes, raising concerns over supply.

Officials said extreme weather played a major role, with a sudden rise in temperatures during the grain development stage followed by rains and storms during maturity damaging standing crops.

The main losses came from grain shriveling and lodging, where mature plants were knocked down by strong winds and rain. Punjab, the country’s largest wheat producer, is expected to contribute around 21.5 million tonnes, while Sindh’s output is estimated at 4.10 million tonnes.

With carryover stocks of around 2 million tonnes, total wheat availability for 2026-27 is estimated at 30 million tonnes, leaving a shortfall of about 1.2 million tonnes.

Officials said the supply gap may force the government to consider imports and build strategic reserves to stabilize the market. Crop conditions had remained strong until mid-February, with expectations that Punjab could cross 23 million tonnes due to timely sowing of about 90 percent of the crop.

However, temperatures surged above 35 degrees Celsius in early March, causing early crop maturity and weakening grain development across large areas.

A second wave of damage came in late March and mid-April, when heavy rains, hailstorms, and strong winds hit crops during the final stage of growth. Nearly 0.3 million acres were affected, with significant losses reported due to flattened crops and disrupted grain formation.

Harvesting progress has reached about 80 percent so far, compared to 72 percent during the same period last year, indicating faster harvesting despite lower yields. Yield data shows irrigated areas produced 34.02 maunds per acre, slightly down from 34.7 maunds last year, while the overall average stands at 33.7 maunds per acre.

Officials said the decline in yield, particularly in Punjab, remains the key reason behind the production shortfall. However, some officials expect the final output gap to narrow slightly, suggesting production could end up just 0.2 million tonnes lower than last year.