Spurs lifeline or good step for West Ham - who's favourite for drop?

Intelligence report synthesized for precision. Verified source updates below.

Detailed Report

Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, West Ham's Jarrod Bowen, Tottenham's Xavi Simons and Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest have all scored key goals for their teams in recent matches

144 CommentsFrom anguish on Saturday evening to some sort of relief on Monday.

It has been a trying season for Tottenham fans but after seeing their side concede a late equaliser at home to Brighton, they can at least taken some comfort from West Ham's failure to take full advantage at Crystal Palace.

The Hammers' draw at Selhurst Park means it is essentially 'as you were' with Spurs still two points from safety as they fight to avoid a first top-flight relegation since 1977.

"This season has been very tight. We don't make points, we play games. We have a mission ahead and keep going."

Leeds and Nottingham Forest were the two big winners from the latest round of fixtures as both claimed big home wins to move eight and five points from the drop zone, respectively.

For Daniel Farke's side, that might prove to be enough and they will hope they soon find themselves excluded from the relegation conversation.

But, with Wolves now gone and Burnley set to follow, there is still work for all four sides to do in the coming weeks.

Why Wolves' relegation had been coming after slow decline

Published3 hours agoWhat does the form suggest?To play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.This video can not be played

We need to find a solution to win games - De Zerbi

Tottenham boss Roberto de Zerbi was bullish about his side's chances of staying up after their draw with Brighton on Saturday, claiming his side is "able to win five games in a row" to end the season.

But for all De Zerbi's faith in his players' capabilities, the evidence of this season does not suggest a team capable of winning five on the bounce.

Spurs have not won any of their past 15 league game, meaning they are without a top-flight victory in 2026 and have managed only two since 26 October.

They must beat bottom side Wolves on Saturday to avoid equalling the club's worst-ever winless league run - set some 91 years ago, between 1934 and 1935.

By contrast, the form of Spurs' relegation rivals has been picking up.

Leeds have won back-to-back games to move to the brink of safety, Nottingham Forest have two wins in their past three games and are unbeaten in five and West Ham have won two of their past five.

Zoom out a little further and the Hammers have taken 19 points from their past 12 games, Forest have 18 from their past 13 and for Leeds it's 18 from 14.

Since beating Crystal Palace on 28 December, Spurs have taken six points from 15 matches.

To play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser.This video can not be played

'It will go all the way' - Nuno on relegation battle after Palace draw

Every year when the fixtures are announced you hear the familiar refrain that "it doesn't matter, you play everyone twice".

But there is no doubt that when you face a certain team can make a big difference across a 10-month campaign.

With five games remaining, Spurs will definitely think their run-in, at least on paper, gives them every chance of staying up.

Next up is a trip to Wolves, who have long since been looking ahead to Championship football next week.

A home match against Leeds on 11 May is another they would view as an opportunity, especially if Daniel Farke's side have beaten Burnley at Elland Road in their previous game and essentially ensured their safety.

Even a tricky looking away match at Champions League-chasing Aston Villa on 3 May comes at a good time for Spurs, as it falls between the two legs of the Europa League semi-final for Unai Emery's men.

A visit to rivals Chelsea before hosting Everton on the final day is not straightforward way to finish given both teams seem likely to be fighting for the European places.

But given how tight things are, that is something all the relegation candidates with have to deal with.

West Ham host Everton on Saturday before an away game at Brentford - and it only gets tougher with title-chasing Arsenal the visitors to the London Stadium on 10 May.

Even with Newcastle enduring a disappointing season, an away game at St James' Park on the penultimate weekend is far from simple and there could be plenty riding on the home match against Leeds on the last day.

Forest arguably face the toughest last five with away games at Chelsea and Manchester United in May - the former coming just three days before the second leg of their Europa League semi-final against Villa.

Home games against Newcastle and Bournemouth, on the last day, could be crucial but getting a result at Sunderland on Friday would help alleviate a lot of stress for Vitor Pereira's side before the remainder of the run-in.

Wild celebrations to verge of tears - time running out for Spurs

Published2 days agoWhat do the stats say?It is 49 years since Spurs found themselves in the relegation zone after 33 league games and in that 1976-77 season they were unable to save themselves.

Given that only Sheffield Wednesday, already relegated from the Championship, have a worse home record than Spurs's two wins in the English football league this term, significant improvements will be required.

The numbers don't get anymore encouraging for De Zerbi's side with only Derby (18) in 2007-08 and Sunderland (17) in 2002-03 having longer winless runs to start a calendar year than Spurs' current streak of 15 - and both were relegated that year.

Leeds and Forest can take some comfort from the fact that 36 points has been enough to survive in every Premier League season since 2015-16.

Even more encouragingly for the Whites, only six teams have ever been relegated with 39 points or more in a 38-game season and not in the past 14 seasons since Birmingham and Blackpool both went down on 39 points.

This year might be one in which the traditional claim of 40 points being required for safety proves true but West Ham know that sometimes even that is not enough.

The Hammers hold the unwanted record of the most points achieved by a relegated side - the 42 they mustered in 2002-03 was not enough to spare them from the drop.

With so little to choose between the sides, particularly London rivals West Ham and Tottenham, the scrap to remain in the top flight looks set to go down to the wire.

"Leeds are safe on 39 points, I think that's enough," former West Ham striker Dean Ashton told Sky Sports.

"It is such a tough task with so few games for Tottenham to gather that many points under such pressure.

"I think Tottenham are going down, I don't see the character or mindset in them to get out of it."

Ex-Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher also thinks Tottenham will be the side playing in the Championship next season.

"I see West Ham beating Brentford and Leeds and staying up at the expense of Tottenham," he told Sky Sports.

"Survival is the priority for Nottingham Forest. But they have to go full steam in Europe because they are in a semi-final.

"If I am the manager of Nottingham Forest, why not go all in on their next game [at Sunderland] and if they win that, they will be on 39 points and pretty much there."

What information do we collect from this quiz?What you're sayingHarry, Manchester: To me Leeds are no longer in the conversation. Forest are hitting form at the right time too. It's got to be between Spurs and West Ham. And honestly, I'm not seeing this 'fight' we'd usually see from relegation candidates in Spurs. West Ham look motivated, so I'm saying Spurs.

Martin, North Yorkshire: Tottenham most likely to get relegated, but West Ham's poor goal difference could still prove to be a factor.

Dougal, Liverpool: West Ham has the trickier run-in, but the benefit of momentum. De Zerbi is having an impact, but is it too late? I think so.

Ron, Stoke: Morgan Gibbs-White and Jarrod Bowen are key to Forest and Hammers staying up but there no one obvious is stepping up at Spurs so for me they join Burnley and Wolves.

Tyler, London: Tottenham are at the disadvantage with practically no momentum! As a West Ham fan, I'd like to say we're going to stay up. Forest are still in it but with those four points ahead it's looking good for them.

Get news, insight and fan views on your Premier League team

All your football quizzes in one place

Spurs lifeline or good step for West Ham - who's favourite for drop?

Detailed Report

Related Intelligence

WrestleMania 42 Saturday (replay)

Magic stun top-seeded Pistons with Game 1 upset

The title-race verdict: Guardiola, Arteta, players and pundits have their say