SBP Governor Expects Faster-Than-Expected Recovery in Forex Reserves by June

Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jamil Ahmad has said that the country’s foreign exchange reserves are projected to strengthen to around $18 billion by the end of June 2026 due to continued dollar purchases and the realization of official inflows, including fresh bilateral arrangements.

The governor shared these projections while briefing senior executives from leading global financial and investment institutions like JP Morgan, Barclays, Citibank, Jefferies, and Franklin Templeton, as well as major credit rating agencies such as Fitch Ratings, Moody’s, and S&P Global.

The briefing took place on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)–World Bank Spring Meetings held during April 13-18, 2026.

The SBP Governor noted that Pakistan’s key macroeconomic indicators have improved faster than anticipated at the start of the fiscal year, despite rising global uncertainty triggered by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

He said inflation averaged 5.7 percent during the first nine months of the current fiscal year, while the external current account remained in surplus. SBP’s foreign exchange reserves increased to $16.4 billion, largely driven by the central bank’s purchases from the interbank foreign exchange market.

According to the governor, improved macroeconomic stability has supported a gradual, sustainable, and broad-based economic recovery. Real GDP growth accelerated to 3.8 percent in the first half of FY26, compared with 1.8 percent recorded during the same period last year.

The governor emphasized that Pakistan’s economic fundamentals are significantly stronger today compared to earlier external shocks, including the Russia–Ukraine war in early 2022.

He informed participants that substantial progress had been made in stabilizing the economy even before the Middle East war began. A prudent combination of monetary and fiscal policies helped reduce inflation to within the target range while strengthening fiscal and external buffers.

The governor acknowledged that recent developments in the Middle East (surging global energy prices, freight costs, and insurance premiums) pose new challenges. However, he reaffirmed that both the SBP and the government remain committed to maintaining price stability and safeguarding macroeconomic stability through timely policy actions.

He noted that monetary policy remains cautiously calibrated, with the real policy rate staying firmly positive. The government has also maintained primary fiscal surpluses while introducing targeted subsidies and demand-management austerity measures to manage economic pressures.

Ahmad further highlighted the staff-level agreement with the IMF for the third review of the Extended Fund Facility and the second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, alongside recent credit rating affirmations, describing them as independent validation of Pakistan’s reform momentum and commitment to macroeconomic stability.

During his visit, the SBP governor also engaged with the Pakistani diaspora and international stakeholders at the Remittances and Roshan Digital Account (RDA) Roadshow. He announced that RDA inflows have surpassed $12.4 billion across more than 917,000 accounts.

He added that recent regulatory enhancements, including the inclusion of non-resident entities, aim to further integrate Pakistan into global financial markets and attract a wider pool of foreign investment.