Early Men's Final Four preview: Arizona-Michigan, UConn-Illinois predictions

Early Men's Final Four preview: Arizona-Michigan, UConn-Illinois predictions

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Early Men's Final Four preview: Arizona-Michigan, UConn-Illinois predictionsMichigan Wolverines2hJeff Borzello and Myron MedcalfMen's March Madness 2026: Ranking the Final Four teamsArizona Wildcats3hMyron MedcalfWhat's next for Duke, Tennessee after Elite Eight: Recruits, transfer portal, moreFlorida Gators2hJeff Borzello and Myron MedcalfMen's March Madness Pain Index: Whose tournament loss hurt most?Duke Blue Devils6dKevin PulsiferLunardi: Want Cinderella back? Set an NCAA tournament eligibility floorTexas Longhorns4dJoe LunardiMen's tourney: Arizona, Michigan co-title favorites, Michigan a slight matchup faveUConn Huskies16mDoug GreenbergJeff BorzelloCloseJeff BorzelloESPN Staff Writer Basketball recruiting insider. Joined ESPN in 2014. Graduate of University of Delaware.Follow on X and Myron MedcalfCloseMyron MedcalfESPN Staff Writer Covers college basketball Joined ESPN.com in 2011 Graduate of Minnesota State University, MankatoFollow on XMultiple AuthorsMar 29, 2026, 08:35 PM ETEmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsThe 2026 men's Final Four is set!

UConn will open the national semifinal action against Illinois after mounting a successful comeback against Duke in the Elite Eight, followed by a battle of No. 1 seeds Arizona and Michigan in Indianapolis on Saturday. Who do ESPN's college basketball experts see advancing to the national championship on April 6?

Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down how each team reached the final weekend of the NCAA tournament -- and their keys to advancing to the title game. Find their predictions below.

No. 1 factor that helped Arizona reach the Final Four: The Wildcats' relentlessness in the paint has been unparalleled, and it carried them when it mattered in the NCAA tournament.

For the season, Arizona ranked fifth in the country in paint points, averaging more than 42. It also led the nation in free throw attempts with nearly 20 points per game at the line. Against another dominant paint team in Arkansas in the Sweet 16, Arizona had perhaps the most efficient interior performance ever seen in March: The Wildcats had 60 paint points and 30 points from the free throw line, the most combined points in an NCAA tournament game in the past 20 years. Then, after Purdue matched them down low in the first half of their Elite Eight showdown, the Wildcats played with an increased urgency and imposed their will in the second half. The Wildcats finished with 40 paint points and 20 points from the free throw line, outscoring the Boilermakers by a combined 28 points in those areas.

It's not just the post scoring from Koa Peat or Motiejus Krivas, or the offensive rebounding from Tobe Awaka -- it's also the relentless attacking from Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov. Coach Tommy Lloyd preaches paint points, and it's reflected in every part of his team's offense. -- Borzello

Arizona's keys against Michigan: This will be the ultimate strength on strength battle in the paint, but Arizona is more reliant -- and better -- at dominating the glass and finishing at the rim. That's the key here. The Wildcats are top-five nationally in paint points per game and offensive rebound percentage, and lead the nation in free throw attempts per game. Michigan, meanwhile, is top-five in 2-point defense, block rate and average 2-point attempt distance defensively. The Wolverines also limit their fouling. Can Arizona continue to control the paint against a team that can match them from a size and physicality perspective?

It's the same situation at the other end of the court. Michigan shoots better than 61% inside the arc and ranks in the top 20 in paint points and second-chance points per game. Arizona will have to win the interior battle on both ends. -- Borzello

No. 1 factor that helped Michigan reach the Final Four: The Wolverines can quickly shift gears and reach a level few teams are able to match. Their Elite Eight win over Tennessee was arguably the most complete game we've seen by any team in the NCAA tournament. They outscored the Vols 48-26 in the first half and held them to just 85 points per 100 possessions -- nearly 23 fewer points than the scoring clip of the Brooklyn Nets, the worst offensive team in the NBA. With 10:52 to play in the first half, Tennessee had a 16-15 lead over Michigan, then the Wolverines launched a 33-10 rally to end the half. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes had his head in his hands. What can anyone do when Michigan plays that way?

The Wolverines are big, have stars, play great defense, and when it's time to stand their ground and battle, no team is better. That's why Michigan is going to Indianapolis. -- Medcalf

Michigan's keys against Arizona: The Wolverines will have to force the Wildcats to take shots outside the paint and neutralize all paths to the rim. Arizona is a really difficult team to compete against when it can get downhill, penetrate and attack teams in the lane. The Wildcats are top-10 nationally in drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line -- that has been their bread-and-butter, and they're better at that tactic than any team in Indianapolis.

On offense, Michigan has to extend Arizona's defense by shooting well from the 3-point line. The Wildcats' four NCAA tournament opponents struggled from beyond the arc, but the Wolverines have made 40% of their 3-point shots since March 1. If Arizona is forced to focus on what Michigan is doing on the perimeter, it will just create more room for Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. to operate in the lane.

Still, against this strong of an Arizona team, Michigan might need Lendeborg to be the standout with a high-level performance comparable to the 27-point effort he produced against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. -- Medcalf

Borzello's prediction: Arizona, 82-80 Medcalf's prediction: Michigan, 78-76

No. 1 factor that helped UConn reach the Final Four: Tarris Reed Jr. and the experience to maintain the type of patience the Huskies needed to deal with a Duke team that had a 19-point lead in the first half has pushed them here. Three players in the starting rotation have been in coach Dan Hurley's system for at least two years, a rarity in the current landscape. Illinois will be the only team in Indianapolis that can match that.

Hurley is as great at recruiting as he is at retention. Freshman Braylon Mullins has had an up-and-down season, seemingly never hitting his stride consistently, but he was a five-star recruit for a reason. When Hurley turned to Mullins, he hit the biggest 3-pointer of his life with 0.4 seconds left to send UConn back to the Final Four.

The Huskies also held Duke to a 100 points per 100 possessions clip in the second half after the Blue Devils had scored at a 147 points per 100 possessions clip in the first half. The difference in their Elite Eight win was that UConn kept fighting and won. -- Medcalf

UConn's keys against Illinois: Illinois has been the best offensive team in the country, but it also played elite defense against Houston in the Sweet 16 and Iowa in the Elite Eight. UConn will have to solve that. The Huskies have size that allows them to play a restrictive zone that has stifled opponents. Houston and Iowa both made under 40% of their shots inside the arc against Illinois, so UConn's game plan has to begin with Reed, who has scored at least 20 points in three of his past four games. The Huskies' big man was dominant against Duke and will have to be great against Illinois in the post so the Illini can't get comfortable in that zone. The Huskies will also have to exploit the pockets in the Illinois defense; Reed's production will be the key to achieving that.

On defense, it all starts with guarding Keaton Wagler. The Huskies have multiple guards they can throw at the 6-foot-5 projected NBA draft lottery pick. They can't allow him to put up big numbers.

Protecting the rim against one of the biggest teams in Indianapolis also will matter. -- Medcalf

No. 1 factor that helped Illinois reach the Final Four: The Illini's offense is one of the most efficient in KenPom history, but it was their defense that sparked this run to Indianapolis. They held VCU to 55 points and 0.83 points per possession in the round of 32, Houston to 55 points and 0.94 points per possession in the Sweet 16 and then Iowa to 59 points and 1.08 points per possession in the Elite Eight. They have protected the rim and the paint at an incredibly high level, limiting all three of the aforementioned opponents to below 48% inside the arc. Iowa had only seven 2-pointers Saturday.

It's a dramatic improvement from their defensive performance late in the regular season, when the Illini saw six of their last nine opponents score at least 1.17 points per possession, suffering five of their eight losses over that stretch. Their offense hasn't missed a beat, but their defense suddenly looking like a top-10 unit has been a season-changing development for coach Brad Underwood's team. -- Borzello

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Illinois' keys against UConn: The biggest key will be to limit Reed -- or get him into foul trouble. Reed has been one of the most dominant big men of this NCAA tournament, and his ability to score at the rim in single coverage has bailed out the Huskies' inconsistent perimeter shooting. But with Eric Reibe not nearly as effective as he was earlier in the season, UConn takes a massive hit at both ends of the court when Reed is out.

The other key will be the 3-point battle. The Huskies have made double-digit 3s once since Feb. 18, but they haven't given up double-digit made 3s over that same span. Illinois attempts 3s at a higher rate than almost any team in the country, while UConn's shotmakers -- Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Mullins -- have been inconsistent. The Illini could outshoot the Huskies. -- Borzello

Borzello's prediction: UConn, 74-72 Medcalf's prediction: UConn, 77-73