De-escalation or a bid to appease the markets?

WASHINGTON: The Iran war, now in its fourth week, is no longer being fought on the battlefield alone. In fact, from a cursory glance at the US president’s utterances, it is being waged on trading floors, oil terminals and social media feeds — sometimes within the span of minutes.

On Monday morning, President Donald Trump jolted global markets with his first post of many on Iran, declaring that the US military would postpone strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days following “productive” talks between Washington and Tehran.

The reaction was instant and dramatic. The announcement added an estimated $1.7 trillion to US stocks and sent oil prices tumbling by $17 — roughly 15 per cent.

But within minutes, Iran rejected the claim as incorrect, calling it an attempt to influence markets. Half the early gains evaporated almost as quickly as they had appeared.

“This is the average Monday morning for a market-oriented executive in the fourth week of war,” commented Fortune, capturing the volatility that now defines global finance.

In a Truth Social post written in all caps earlier on Monday, Trump said the two countries had held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

Hours later, however, his tone shifted sharply. Speaking in Florida, he warned that if talks failed, “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out.”

Trump also claimed that he had not been in contact with Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei during ongoing negotiations with the country.

“We’re dealing with a man who I believe is the most respected and the leader,” Trump told reporters.

The president also insisted the Iranian side had initiated contact. “They called, I didn’t call,” he said. “They want to make a deal, and we are very willing to make a deal.”

He claimed there were already “major points of agreement” with unnamed Iranian interlocutors and outlined US conditions: “We want no enrichment, but we also want the enriched uranium.”

He refused to name those allegedly in contact with Washington. “Because I don’t want them to be killed,” he explained.

Publicly, Iranian officials swiftly denied that any negotiations were underway.

“There are no talks between Tehran and Washington,” the Mehr news agency quoted Iran’s foreign ministry as saying, describing Trump’s remarks as an effort “to reduce energy prices.”

Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei indicated that messages had been received from “some friendly countries indicating a US request for negotiations aimed at ending the war”, but denied any such talks had taken place.

The Axios news website named Trump’s interlocutor as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s speaker of parliament. But Ghalibaf said “no negotiations” were underway, adding in a post on X that the announcement was intended “to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”

Weighing in, Vali Nasr, a widely respected scholar of Middle Eastern affairs, observed: “It may well be Trump has not talked to anyone in Iran, and is just buying himself time.”

The confusion over whether there had been any contact between Tehran and Washington also plagued world capitals, which responded with reluctant optimism.

The Kremlin said it was monitoring “contradictory statements” regarding the situation in Iran, but hoped the conflict would be resolved quickly.

“There have been many different statements today, including some contradictory ones. We continue to monitor the situation closely and hope that it will soon return to a peaceful course,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

“I welcome the talks reported between the US and Iran,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a parliamentary committee, adding the UK was “aware” discussions were happening.

The acknowledgement came after Starmer said he was sending short-range air defence systems to Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to counter Iranian missile attacks.

The overtures towards de-escalation come even as thousands of US Marines are headed to the Middle East, reinforcing the American presence there amid speculation at the weekend that Trump was mulling ground operations either to seize Iranian oil assets or to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier that has been part of Middle East war operations, on Monday returned to a naval base in Crete.

The vessel, which took on food, fuel and ammunition at Souda Bay in February, reported a laundry fire on March 12 which injured two crew members.

The carrier has also reportedly suffered significant problems with its toilet system while at sea, with US media reporting clogs and long lines for restrooms on the ship.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue their military offensives against Iran and Lebanon, claiming the assassination of two more Iranian nuclear scientists.

“President Trump believes there is a chance to leverage the tremendous achievements of the IDF and the US military in order to realise the war’s objectives in an agreement — an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests,” Netanyahu said in a video statement.

“We will protect our vital interests under any circumstances,” he said.