The global winners and losers of the war in Iran

It is increasingly clear that the impact of Tehran's retaliation, designed to trigger economic disruption and damage, may not be fleeting. Moreover, it's very uneven.

Alongside a hefty catalogue of those who risk being hard hit, there are some who are benefiting. So who are they?

For all the efforts to pursue renewable energy, we remain hugely reliant on oil and gas. Plentiful reserves tend to promise great riches, hence crude has been labelled "black gold". When prices rise, producers are typically quids in, while users are out of pocket.

But this is not your usual oil price shock.

The Middle East remains the heart of supply, the Strait of Hormuz its main artery.

The impact of a de facto blockage and attacks on energy infrastructure in the region has hit Gulf producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia hard, as Tehran targets America's allies.

As customers seek alternative sources, it's the likes of Norway and Canada who may gain.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and when many countries sought to move away from relying on Russian gas, Norway was able to ramp up production and take advantage.

Meanwhile, Canada's Energy Minister Tim Hodgson has been quick to position his nation as "a stable, reliable, predictable, values-based producer of energy", but there are questions about how much it can raise production.

Instead, it's Russia that could be the biggest winner. As Washington relaxes the rules to ease the global supply crunch, Russia's crude oil sales to India have jumped by 50%.

Some estimates say that Moscow could earn up to $5bn (£3.7bn) more by the end of March, and could be on track for its biggest year of fuel-related revenues since 2022.

America risks handing Moscow a hefty windfall at the expense of Gulf nations. There are other potential gainers too.

As some countries ramp up their use of coal, it is a tantalising opportunity for big exporters such as Indonesia, as the price of that fuel also rises.

What of the US itself? President Donald Trump says that when oil goes up, the US "makes a lot of money".

Certainly, American oil producers could be on track to make tens of billions of dollars of extra revenues this year if crude prices remain around current levels.

But that doesn't make the US a net winner.

Firstly, because some producers are heavily exposed to disruption in the Middle East. ExxonMobil, for instance, has operations at Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial hub, where production has been shut down since early March, and which has now been hit by Iranian missile attacks, causing "extensive damage".

Secondly, after years of cutting back capacity in the face of dwindling wholesale prices, many shale producers can't ramp up output quickly.

And most important of all: on a per person basis, Americans are the biggest users of oil and gas on the planet.

From cranking up the heat in the harsh Midwest winters, to fuelling the driving season, they are heavily exposed to the fluctuating price of fossil fuels.

Economists at Oxford Economics warn that if oil prices were to surge to $140 - and stay there - the economy risks shrinking.

Of course, Americans are not alone in that vulnerability. The reliance of European consumers - and those in the UK - to imported gas in particular means a greater risk to growth.

And that would happen via the hit to inflation: market developments over the last few weeks could add roughly 0.5% to inflation later in the year, if sustained, as price increases filter across to items such as fertiliser and shipping costs.

The good news is that, in becoming more energy efficient over the years, the West in general is more resilient to energy price shocks than in the past.

But with, for example, oil and gas making up more than half of energy consumption in the UK, drivers, household heating bills and those for energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing remain exposed – which is true in many nations across the world.

Much of the impact depends not just on the future direction of prices, but government responses, which is a heated topic.

It is unsurprising that many authorities are hesitant to think about large-scale bailouts, for their finances too are under fire.

The response of bond markets to the risk of higher inflation threatens to add billions to the costs of already-indebted countries.

Naturally, though, the greatest immediate threat has been to the usual customers of the oil and liquid gas flowing east through the Strait of Hormuz.

Asia gets 59% of its crude oil from the Middle East, South Korea, as much as 70%. As shares there have slumped over disruption and cost concerns, politicians have also warned of the risk to the country's chipmaking industry.

South Korea makes more than half of the world's memory chips. Elsewhere, fuel rationing, four-day weeks and the closure of educational establishments are among the measures introduced by countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Philippines.

But the biggest guzzlers in the continent have been somewhat insulated, through planning and diplomacy. China is sitting on reserves equal to a good few months of usage and has reportedly ramped up purchases from Iran.

The same is true of India, as it also takes advantage of that temporary green light to turn to Russia.

Exactly what comes to pass will of course depend on future developments in this conflict. But it is unlikely, as it strategised ahead of commencing the attacks on Iran, that the US fully foresaw some of these economic consequences.

And if the war is protracted, the greater the risk of not just the damage to individual countries, but of contagion and global spillovers.

India was a major buyer of Iranian crude, peaking at about 11.5% of its total purchase, before 2018 sanctions tightened.

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