International Oil Isn’t At $100 Per Barrel— It’s At $155: JP Morgan

JP Morgan Global Commodities Research has warned that global oil reserve holders are hiding the true cost of crude, with Middle East physical prices surging to $155 per barrel while Brent hovers near $100.

In a report released on March 17, the bank exposed a severe supply shock concentrated in the Middle East. Benchmarks like Brent and WTI appear stable due to large inventories in the US and Europe, as well as Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases.

However, Dubai and Oman crude prices, which reflect Asia-bound Gulf supply, reveal the real strain on the market. “If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice higher. The real price of oil is already $155 — and the world is only beginning to feel it,” JP Morgan warned.

Asia, which imports more than 11 million barrels per day from the Gulf, is already facing product-price spikes and early signs of demand destruction. JP Morgan noted that the apparent calm in Atlantic benchmarks is temporary and that Brent and WTI prices could spike sharply if disruptions persist.

Historical comparisons in the report show that current supply losses are among the largest since 1950, rivaling shocks from the Iran-Iraq War, the Iranian Revolution, and the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo.