How the Premier League run-in is shaping up

Mikel Arteta's Arsenal hold a seven-point lead over Pep Guardiola's Manchester City at the top

It's tense at the top and nail-biting at the bottom.

With fewer than 10 rounds of games left, we take a look at how the Premier League title race, the fight for Champions League places and the relegation battle are shaping up.

At the summit, Arsenal enjoy a seven-point lead over Manchester City but have played a game more.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, the Gunners have a slightly easier run-in on paper, although their eight remaining games include what could be a title-defining trip to the Etihad on 19 April.

Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of Arsenal's next five league games are at home against mid-table sides while four of Manchester City's next five are away, including a trip to Chelsea.

While some have questioned Arsenal's ability to go on and win the league, it's clear that Manchester City haven't been the terrifying force of seasons past.

In fact, only twice under Pep Guardiola have they had fewer points after 29 games than their haul of 60 this term – in their first season under him back in 2016-17 (58) and last season (48).

If we look at both teams' expected goals numbers, neither has been as dominant as the title winners in recent years – whether due to their own flaws or the Premier League being more competitive than ever – so there's a chance of both sides slipping up in their remaining games.

Good news for Arsenal fans is that the most dominant team statistically - in terms of expected goal difference per game, excluding penalties - have won the Premier League in three of the past four seasons.

The exception came when Manchester City pipped the Gunners to the title two years ago.

With fifth place likely to lead to Champions League qualification again, just three points separate Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool for a place in the top five, with one of those sides looking set to miss out.

Some would say Aston Villa have the easiest run-in of the quartet. After a tough trip to Old Trafford this weekend, they face four of the bottom six in their next six games, although whether playing sides fighting for survival is an advantage at this stage is debatable.

Liverpool are the team currently outside the top five. They have the chance to build momentum against a run of mid-table sides before tackling a daunting series of games in May when they play all three of their Champions League-chasing rivals in succession.

A couple of months ago Aston Villa looked almost nailed on for a top-five finish as they sat at least eight points clear of the other three teams despite their underlying numbers being much worse.

They were even portrayed as possible title contenders, but a spate of injuries to key players and a drying-up of the xG-defying screamers they scored from outside the box earlier in the season allowed their rivals to make up ground.

In the battle at the bottom, Wolves and Burnley are all but down barring a footballing miracle, which leaves one spot that is likely to be filled by one of Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and West Ham.

With the most points on the board already, Leeds have the kindest run-in on paper, with just one game against a side from the top six (Manchester United on 13 April) and home games against both of the bottom two.

Meanwhile, it would seem like West Ham are the most likely to be relegated as not only do they currently sit in the bottom three, they also have the toughest run-in of the four sides.

However, the reason why Tottenham and Nottingham Forest fans have reason to be nervous is that West Ham's performances have improved considerably under Nuno Espirito Santo's guidance in recent weeks.

Only four Premier League teams have taken more points from their past eight games than the Hammers (14) and only four teams have a higher expected goal difference in that time, suggesting the upturn has not been down to luck.

While fixture lists and statistics give us a great idea of what's to come, there are sure to be many twists and turns in the battle for the prized places in the Premier League before the final ball is kicked.

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