3rd phase of AJK elections: PML-N poised for gains in Poonch amid rigging allegations

The PML-N appeared set to gain at least one seat in Poonch division, where four constituencies went to the polls on Monday amid allegations of rigging, violence and disruption, with polling suspended at some places. The biggest upset was the defeat of Muslim Conference president Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan in LA-14 (Dhirkot), a constituency from where he, and before him his uncle and father, had been elected in all nine elections since 1985. His defeat also appeared to underscore the political decline of what was once the largest and longest-ruling party in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), but was reduced to a marginal force following the emergence of the PML-N in 2010. Khan was defeated by Sajid Iqbal Abbasi, who contested his first election on the ticket of the little-known Awami Dast-o-Bazu Party, by a margin of more than 21,000 votes, according to unofficial and unverified results from 213 of the 214 polling stations. Observers attributed Abbasi’s victory largely to his hands-on efforts for the development of the constituency and the welfare of its residents, which, they said, had helped him build a personal support base over the years. PML-N’s Raja Faisal Azad and PPP’s Raja Mubashar Ejaz secured 3,000 and 2,800 votes, respectively. In another closely watched contest in LA-17 (Haveli), a neck-and-neck fight was under way between Prime Minister Faisal Mumtaz Rathore and PML-N candidate Engr Chaudhry Mohsin Aziz. Initial reports suggested that Aziz had established a sizeable lead, but it later emerged that results from nearly two dozen polling stations were still awaited. Independent candidate Khawaja Tariq Saeed, who had initially been tipped to finish second, was trailing far behind. In LA-15 (Bagh Central), Jamaat-i-Islami’s Brig (retd) Dr Mohammad Khan was initially reported to be heading for victory, but the contest later narrowed to a two-way race between PML-N’s Mushtaq Ahmed Minhas and PPP’s Sardar Ziaul Qamar. Late-night unofficial and unverified results showed Qamar establishing a clear lead of 2,000 votes over Mr Minhas. Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) president and former AJK prime minister Sardar Tanveer Ilyas, who had won the constituency in the 2021 election on a PTI ticket, appeared to be out of the race. In LA-16 (Bagh East), PML-N’s Sardar Mir Akbar was leading PPP’s Sardar Qamaruz Zaman, who is the father of the PPP candidate in LA-15 and has served as an AJK minister in several PPP governments. Akbar had secured 14,900 votes, while Mr Qamar had polled 10,960. Results from 14 polling stations were awaited. Elections are being held across AJK in phases amid tensions between protesters and the authorities. Citing law and order concerns, the Election Commission had decided to postpone polling in Bagh and Sudhnoti districts that was originally set for today. Polling began at 8am and continued until 5pm in four Poonch constituencies. The PPP, which has accused the PML-N of rigging in the previous phases, continued to make similar allegations on Monday as well. In response, PML-N leaders said the PPP had no evidence for its claims, and reiterated their confidence to form the government in AJK based on the seats it has already secured so far. The PML-N has so far bagged 24 seats — nine from Mirpur polls held on July 27 and 15 in the second phase comprising Muzaffarabad Division and the 12 refugee seats. On the other hand, the PPP has only won 10 constituencies so far. The third phase of the AJK elections was originally meant to cover all of Poonch Division. The division comprises 11 constituencies, including three in Bagh, one in Haveli, five in Poonch district and two in Sudhnoti district. However, last week the AJK Election Commission announced that polling would only go ahead as scheduled in Bagh and Haveli due to concerns over the law and order situation. The AJK election commissioner has hinted that polling on the remaining seven constituencies could be held by Aug 20 or 21. Government officials had anticipated clashes in some areas today, while the Election Commission had classified most of the 803 polling stations in the four constituencies as either sensitive or highly sensitive. “Apart from the regular police of both districts, we have dispatched an additional 10,300 troops to maintain law and order and provide a fear-free atmosphere to voters,” Election Commission Secretary Raja Mohammad Shakeel told Dawn earlier Malpractice, rigging allegations Polling in previous phases of the elections was marred by allegations of rigging, scuffles and violence, with the PPP and the PML-N — the main contenders in AJK but allies in the Centre — engaging in a war of words. The PPP has accused the PML-N of rigging and electoral malpractices in the previous phases. It continued to allege rigging in Haveli and Bagh as well. In a series of posts on X, the PPP shared complaints it said it had filed to the Election Commission. In one of the complaints, the PPP alleged that roads leading to the Banni Marasira area had been blocked, where PML-N supporters were illegally stamping ballot papers at 12 polling stations in the LA-15 constituency. “The commission is requested to consider the two acts together rather than separately, because the second is made possible by the first,” the party said, adding that officials, voters, polling agents and party workers were unable to reach the polling stations “to see what is being done inside”.

The party also claimed delays in polling at LA-15’s polling station no.87 in Thub. It also alleged that polling at stations no.143 and 144 in Hatala Pader did not commence on time due to the non-arrival of polling staff.

The PPP also alleged that its polling agent was “forcibly removed” from LA-15’s station no.158 in Makhdoom Kot. Similarly, PPP’s agents had also been removed from polling stations no.8-14 in Bani Maldhara and PML-N supporters were stamping ballot papers at those stations, the party alleged.

At around 12:45, the party claimed on X that workers of Jamaat-i-Islami had gathered to “capture” 26 polling stations in the constituency — nos.31-38, nos.70-79 and nos.180-186. It said the police had initially arrived but then withdrew. “The stations are, therefore, unguarded at this moment, with an organised body assembled against them.” It urged the Election Commission to determine on whose orders police had withdrawn and direct the law enforcers to return to the station.

The PPP also posted a blurry video, which it said was of PML-N workers “attacking” the polling station set up at the Boys Middle School in LA-15 Central Bagh.

Regarding LA-16, the party claimed that its polling agents were not being allowed inside stations no.119 and 120 while PML-N supporters were stamping ballot papers inside the stations in the agents’ absence.

The PPP further alleged delays in polling at stations no.61 and 141 of the constituency.

It made similar allegations regarding polling stations no.109 and 110 in LA-16 Bagh-III Sharqi. Moreover, the party accused “armed individuals associated with the PML-N” of opening fire at polling station no.179, Kot Chinalla in the constituency and disrupting the election process. “The polling agents of the PPP have been removed from the station. It is further alleged that ballot papers are being stamped lawfully,” the PPP added.

In LA-17, the party alleged that its agents had been “forced out” from the polling station in Mullah Basti, Kahuta City by PML-N workers. PPP Vice President Sherry Rehman expressed reservations after reports of rigging and malpractices emerged, saying that preventing polling agents from entering polling stations in LA-16 raised “serious questions” about the transparency of the election process. In a statement, she demanded that an explanation be sought from the presiding officers of stations nos.119 and 120 on the matter. The senator also called for the Election Commission to take notice of the reports of PPP’s polling agent being removed from station no.158 in LA-15. Rehman further demanded alternative arrangements to compensate for the shortage of polling staff and material, calling on the authorities to ensure that free and transparent elections were held at all polling stations without any disruption.

PPP Secretary General Nayyar Bokhari also accused the PML-N of continuing rigging in the third phase of the elections. He highlighted that his party was regularly informing the Election Commission about the alleged rigging via phone. But, “the chief election commissioner and the election commission secretary’s reply to all of our complaints has been that nothing has happened and everything is good,” he claimed.

When Dawn approached the Election Commission regarding Bokhari’s claim, Secretary Raja Muhammad Shakeel said any complaint that he or the chief election commissioner received was being attended and responded to, and the Quick Response Force (QRF) was also moved over it. ‘AJK’s people have supported PML-N’ Responding to PPP’s allegations, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Political Affairs Rana Sanaullah said the rival party had not provided any proof for its claims. Addressing a press conference in Islamabad flanked by Minister for Kashmir Affairs Amir Muqam, Sanaullah denied that a comparatively high turnout could be considered proof of rigging. The PML-N leader explained that a strong family and tribe system in AJK prompted people to show up for their relatives. “Our opposing candidate Chaudhry Yasin was complaining yesterday that in his opposing candidate’s union council (UC), 80pc votes were cast, whereas in his own UC, 96pc votes were cast,” Sanaullah claimed.

Sanaullah asserted that balloting had gone fairly smoothly in Bagh and Haveli today. He, however, detailed a few reported incidents. In Haveli, people tried to snatch documents from the polling agents in one station, but the Quick Response Force (QRF) promptly responded and resolved the situation without incident, according to Sanaullah. In Bagh, some people, whom Sanaullah claimed were PPP workers, tried to halt polling at three stations. QRF responded there as well and resumed polling, the minister added. Meanwhile, Muqam urged PPP to review the number of people attending their rallies instead of accusing others of rigging, insisting that PPP lacked support from the people of AJK. “AJK’s people have supported PML-N,” Muqam asserted.

Disputing PPP’s recent stance that it was against phased elections, Muqam said the party had mentioned no reservations when the election schedule was first announced. Sanaullah also backed Muqam, saying that PPP had not raised concerns when the Election Commission had originally sought consent from all parties for phased elections. He further claimed that upon PPP’s insistence, the electoral watchdog had scheduled voting on the 12 refugee seats in the second phase of the elections. Sanaullah contended that PPP did not want election results from the refugee seats in the rest of Pakistan to impact its numbers in AJK polls since PPP had not even canvassed in those places. Speaking about the recent unrest in the region, Sanaullah expressed hope that the protests would end once the third phase of elections concludes, as protesters had “only aimed to stop elections”.

The new AJK government, which he said PML-N would form with a two-thirds majority, will respond to the protesters’ “valid demands”, the PML-N leader added. However, he also warned that those who “took up arms and instigated the people of AJK, while acting on the directions of the enemy… will have to face the law and answer for their crimes”. In response to a reporter’s question about PPP’s claim that PML-N only had numbered days of rule in the Centre, Sanaullah expressed hope that after the AJK elections, PPP would “open-heartedly” congratulate PML-N. Meanwhile, PML-N’s AJK chapter secretary general Tariq Farooq — who also emerged as the winner in LA-7 recently — said allegations of “rigging, violence, coercion, or fake voting” emerging from the constituency of Prime Minister Faisal Mumtaz Rathore were a “serious question of constitutional governance”. “This is no longer merely an electoral dispute. It becomes a serious question of constitutional governance, democratic values, and the sanctity of the people’s vote,” Farooq wrote on X. “I find it difficult to believe that the prime minister of Azad Jammu & Kashmir could consider himself above the Constitution, the law, and basic ethical obligations merely to secure his own election,” he said, without providing further details. The PML-N candidate asserted that “public mandate must be secured through a free, fair and transparent election, not through power, influence or state authority”.

Rathore, two ex-AJK PMs face crucial electoral test In Monday’s polls, AJK PM Rathore, who is from the PPP, and two of his predecessors — Sardar Tanveer Ilyas and Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan — face a battle for political survival as voters head to the polls. Around 238,664 men and 221,707 women are eligible to cast their ballots at 803 polling stations comprising 1,254 polling booths. A total of 82 candidates are in the fray, with LA-14 (Dhirkot) attracting the highest number of candidates at 30 and LA-17 (Haveli) the lowest at nine. In LA-17, Rathore is facing PML-N candidate Mohsin Aziz and independent candidate Khawaja Tariq Saeed, a member of the AJK Council. Rathore and Saeed had been political allies and, under an agreement, had agreed to contest the seat alternately. However, after becoming prime minister, Rathore asked Saeed to step aside in his favour, a request he did not accept, turning the former allies into rivals. Aziz, whose father Chaudhry Mohammad Aziz had won the seat at least three times, draws support from the sizeable Gujjar community. His recent large election rally in Forward Kahuta reportedly surprised his rivals and underscored the strength of his campaign. Saeed, meanwhile, is believed to enjoy the backing of a sizeable section of the Kashmiri community, as well as an alliance of several smaller clans. Rathore, however, remains confident of retaining the seat, citing the performance of his government during his relatively brief tenure as prime minister. The constituency has also witnessed allegations of electoral irregularities on social media, with reports claiming that two presiding officers had been caught manipulating results in favour of Rathore. Shakeel dismissed the allegations but at the same time confirmed that complaints had been received against the two officials and that they had subsequently been relieved of election duties. In LA-15 (Wasti Bagh), ex-PM Ilyas is facing PML-N candidate and former minister Mushtaq Ahmed Minhas, PPP nominee and sitting minister Sardar Ziaul Qamar, and Jamaat-i-Islami candidate retired Brig Dr Mohammad Khan, a respected educationist. Ilyas, who secured a little over 3,300 votes from Upper Neelum in the second phase of the elections, had initially announced a boycott of the third phase. He subsequently reversed the decision and resumed campaigning, claiming that his victory would enable the constituency to “secure either the presidency or prime ministership.” Ilyas and Qamar belong to the same Madiyal tribe, while Brig Khan belongs to the Narma clan and enjoys the support of former JI chief Abdul Rashid Turabi and former adviser Raja Yasin Khan. Minhas has the advantage of belonging to the PML-N, which is poised to form the next government after emerging as the largest party in the elections held so far. His campaign has also stressed the argument that voters should elect a candidate from the party that is set to occupy the government benches rather than send their representative to the opposition. In LA-16 (Sharqi Bagh), former ministers Sardar Mir Akbar and Sardar Qamar Zaman are the principal contenders, representing the PML-N and PPP, respectively. The fourth contest, LA-14 (Dhirkot), has drawn particular attention because of the challenge faced by Sardar Attique, head of the once-dominant Muslim Conference (MC). Attique is reportedly facing a strong challenge from Sajid Iqbal Abbasi of the relatively new Awam Dast-o-Bazu Party. A contractor and philanthropist, Abbasi is said to have spent millions of rupees from his own resources on public welfare projects in the constituency, helping him build a sizeable personal following. Attique, who has represented the constituency successively since 2006, when he first became prime minister, faces an additional challenge in that Abbasi also belongs to the same tribe. Among nearly two dozen other candidates are PML-N’s nominee Raja Faisal Azad and PPP candidate Raja Mubashar Ejaz. While the main contest is seen as being between Attique and Abbasi, the PML-N and PPP nominees are expected to vie for the second runner-up position.

Additional reporting by Tariq Naqash